The Oscars 2014: Fred’s Picks Part 2 From Medium Categories to Best Picture!

The Oscars are coming!

It’s Oscar season again everyone! Of course as with last year, my contest Outpick Fred at the Oscars is going to start up soon (ie Sunday February 23^rd 2014) and thus now is the time to present the thinking behind by Oscar picks. I’m going to start these picks from what I call the “minor categories”  before writing about the” medium and major categories” along the way giving my picks of who I think will win, as well as putting my two cents in on who should win. Without further due here are my picks for the 86^th Annual Academy Awards, going from the medium categories all the way up to best picture!

The Medium Categories:

Best Animated Feature:

Usually I go with the always vote Pixar rule, but for the first time in a while that doesn’t actually apply… In theory this would make the category harder to pick… But then Frozen became the huge success it was and now it’s an easy pick again. This one is a deserved lock for Frozen

Should Win: Frozen

Will Win (Fred’s Prediction): Frozen

Best Documentary Feature:

It’s time to play Fred doesn’t watch too many documentaries but has to pick one game. I actually have an opinion this year though as I got the chance to watch The Act of Killing recently and believe it should win this category. And you know what I’m going to foolishly go with my heart here as I think that The Act of Killing has enough buzz around it to actually pull this off. It may be foolish but hey I don’t have a calculated pick for this one so here goes nothing.

Should Win: The Act of Killing

Will Win (Fred’s Prediction): The Act of Killing

Best Foreign Language Film:
Another category I don’t have as much investment in sadly. I’m going to watch Broken Circle Breakdown in a few days (it’s now on ITunes) and I hope to have the time to see the Great Beauty before it exits the current theatre it’s showing in. So we go with hype and right now The Great Beuty is the big favorite and some even say a lock. So they Great Beauty is going to be my pick.

Should Win: ??

Will Win (Fred’s Prediction): The Great Beauty

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Cue Before Midnight should really win but it won’t rant. First off this is the only category (predictably) in which Before Midnight is nominated and sadly it has to go up against 12 Years a Slave. No “Before” movie has ever won an Oscar and sadly this doesn’t seem to be changing come next week. It is the best script in either category though and I will stand by that through and through. 12 Years a Slave is the predictable winner and the only one I can really see winning this category. But darned if I won’t be cheering for Before Midnight on Oscar night!

Should Win: Before Midnight

Will Win (Fred’s Prediction): 12 Years a Slave

Best Original Screenplay:

This is a tough category oh boy. Personally my favorite overall script in this category is Blue Jasmine’s. It’s Woody Alan’s best in a while and I think it was perhaps the chief reason I liked the film as much as I did. I think Her will be the ultimate winner though, a well deserved one too as it seems to be the film riding the biggest high in this category.

Should Win: Blue Jasmine

Will Win (Fred’s Prediction): Her

Major Categories:

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:

For the most part the acting categories this year aren’t so bad. For me the best performance in this category is probably either Fassbender, for his unpredictability or Jared Leto just for having the gull to play this character and give this specific performance. Leto is the clear favorite going in and I think the lock to ultimately win the category. I can’t really see an upset here. Ps the fact that James Gandolfini isn’t nominated is mind boggling…

Should Win: Michael Fassbender

Will Win (Fred’s Prediction): Jared Leto

Best Actress in a Supporting Role:

It looked like Lawrence was the favorite for a while but since the SAG awards it’s been a different story, and a good one at that. It seems now that Lupita Nyong’o is the clear favorite going into Oscar night which is great because she’s easily the best pick out of the nominated class. No other nominee has quite the same power and emotional beauty portrayed in Nyong’o’s performance and I’m glad to say I get to have a safe heart pick by picking her to win come Oscar night.

Should Win: Lupita Nyong’o

Will Win (Fred’s Prediction): Lupita Nyong’o

Best Actress in a Leading Role:

This one might be the biggest big award lock of the night. I can’t see anyone (even with the power of Amy Adam’s side boob) overtaking Cate Blanchett here and deservedly so, this is the best female lead performance of the year (except maybe Greta Gerwig in Frances Ha, or Julie Delpy in Before Midnight). This category puzzles me though as there is no nomination for the awesome Emma Thompson performance in Saving Mr. Banks, and Meryl Streep just seems to get nominated because she’s well, Meryl Streep. Either way this is Cate Blanchett’s award to win and it would be a huge upset if she doesn’t.

Should Win: Cate Blanchett

Will Win (Fred’s Prediction): Cate Blanchett

Best Actor in a Leading Role:

Poor Chiwetel Ejiofor and Leonardo DiCaprio whom between them have the best male performance of the year and somehow neither are going to win. Instead it’s going to go to the token Hollywood loves massive weight loss performance and McConaughey looks to take it come Oscar night. I’m not saying this is terrible, like it would be if Christian Bale took it but I’m sad that the best performance won’t be awarded the prize. Also I’m sad that Oscar Isaac and Tom Hanks aren’t nominated but that’s a topic that at this point sadly doesn’t apply.

Should Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor or Leonardo DiCaprio

Will Win (Fred’s Prediction): Matthew McConaughey

Best Director:

It’s been a more common since the extra best picture era for the best director, best picture split to occur. I predict it will happen this year as well as I don’t think that the academy can overlook Cauron’s magnificent direction in Gravity. I don’t think anything really matches up to it this year and I will be glad when I hopefully see him win for the amazing work

Should Win: Alfonso Cauron

Will Win (Fred’s Prediction): Alfonso Cauron

And now for the big one...

Best Picture:

I think that this is pretty much a lock. I can’t really see any other film winning at this year’s Oscars other than 12 Years a Slave. Mostly I see this as almost an importance or morality thing for Oscar voters. That and I don’t think any other film really has the hype in this race to push past that potential “moral obligation.” I think this is a lock. Ps it puzzles me that in this year of so many good movies that they couldn’t just pick a tenth nominee for best picture… Maybe Before Midnight??

Should Win: Cue “Why isn’t Before Midnight nominated?” cry

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave